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The 2024 MLB Draft

MLB Draft 2024 Prospect Week 5 Review: Chase Burns Vs. Hagen Smith

MLB Draft 2024 Prospect Week 5 Review: Chase Burns Vs. Hagen Smith

Hagen Smith of Arkansas Baseball and Chase Burns of Wake Forest have been the two best pitching prospects so far.

Mar 18, 2024
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It’s becoming harder and harder to ignore Chase Burns' season. 

In the first mock draft from FloBaseball, Arkansas Baseball left-hander Hagen Smith was the first pitcher off the board and one I flagged as the most likely to enter the No. 1 or No. 2 pick discussion. 

But Burns, the Wake Forest flamethrower, has other ideas.

The second pitcher off the board in the first mock draft and going No. 7 to St. Louis, Burns so far is having a better season than Paul Skenes in 2023 from a strikeout perspective. As ESPN pointed out during Burns’ start against Virginia, he has a better whiff rate and chase rate than Skenes did a year ago and his comp in the majors are Spencer Strider and Felix Bautista. 

Like Skenes, Burns was the top pitcher in the transfer portal and like Skenes, he chose a national title contender. 

It’s been a little disappointing of a start for the preseason No. 1 team Wake Forest (13-6), but Burns has not been a part of that story. Against Virginia he struckout 13 to give him 56 for the year in seven starts. He allowed one run and two hits in 7 innings, his longest outing of the year. His ERA is now 2.08. He’s 4-0 in those starts and Wake has won all of his starts. 

Chase Burns vs. Hagen Smith

Since his second start, Smith has been, well, just as good. He has allowed one run since the James Madison game to start the year and he has 50 strikeouts total. Smith has pitched seven fewer innings, but only has six less strikeouts. 

Both have devastating sliders but Chase throws harder and was hitting 99 MPH against Virginia on Saturday. 

Perhaps Hagen has the edge if the two continue this pace because he is a lefty, but both are becoming the obvious top two pitchers this season. 

MLB 2024 Mock Draft Review: A look At Pitchers

The strength of this draft class isn’t pitching, but that’s not to say the pitching lacks good prospects. It just means there isn’t a Gerrit Cole or even a Hunter Greene in this draft. 

At least not yet.

The pitching market in these drafts can shift quickly. Last season, Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford were far and away the best prospects, but they wound up going second and third because Paul Skenes joined them at the front of the class. And a pitcher will almost always overcome an everyday player in head-to-head draft comparisons. 

This year, Smith and Burns were the top pitchers in our mock draft, but the one prospect that may have the widest variance and could possibly pitch himself into the top 10 is Iowa pitcher Brody Brecht. 

As noted in the mock draft, he was the most difficult prospect to mock. I have him at No. 16 to Miami, but many have him going higher. A former member of the Iowa football team, Brecht is one of the best athletes in the class. 

So far this season, he’s not doing anything to hurt his draft prospects. He has a 1.54 ERA in five starts and he has 50 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. But he also isn’t doing the one thing he needs to do to climb into the top 10: Cutdown on walks. He has 21 walks in 23.1 innings. 

He’s managed to limit the damage in his five starts, just look at the ERA, and he has some good starts. But against the two best teams he’s faced, Ole Miss and Auburn, he allowed seven runs in 11 innings, including five in 5.0 innings against Ole Miss. 

Here are some other notes on the draft:

The Pitcher I Expect To Move The Most: Luke Holman, RHP, LSU Baseball

Holman’s first SEC start couldn’t have gone much worse against Mississippi State. He allowed 10 hits and five runs, two earned, in 4.2 innings. He only had three strikeouts. 

But one bad road start isn’t enough for me to pull back on the hype around Holman. 

The Alabama transfer and so far the 6-foot-4 right-hander has been the second-best transfer in the country. He hadn’t allowed any runs before that game. He was 7-4 with a 3.67 ERA at Alabama last year and is carrying a .63 ERA this season.

Prospect Series Of The Week: LSU Baseball vs. Florida Baseball

One of the biggest series of the college baseball season is this weekend when Jac Caglianone and Florida travel to defending champion LSU. The series should be the toughest yet for LSU starters Holman, Thatcher Hurd and Gage Jump. 

More MLB Draft 2024 Coverage 

When Is The 2024 MLB Draft?

The 2024 MLB Draft is part of MLB All-Star week and will be in Arlington, Texas, where the World Series champion Texas Rangers are hosting the All-Star Game. 

The All-Star Game is July 16. The official date of the draft has yet to be announced, but the 2023 MLB Draft began the Sunday before the All-Star Game, which was played on Tuesday.  

MLB Draft 2024 Order

The New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres’ first picks dropped 10 spots because the clubs exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax by more than $40 million. 

Here’s the order: 

  1. Cleveland Guardians
  2. Cincinnati Reds
  3. Colorado Rockies
  4. Oakland A’s
  5. Chicago White Sox
  6. Kansas City Royals
  7. St. Louis Cardinals 
  8. Los Angeles Angels 
  9. Pittsburgh Pirates
  10. Washington Nationals 
  11. Detroit Tigers
  12. Boston Red Sox
  13. San Francisco Giants
  14. Chicago Cubs
  15. Seattle Mariners
  16. Miami Marlins 
  17. Milwaukee Brewers
  18. Tampa Bay Rays
  19. New York Mets
  20. Toronto Blue Jays
  21. Minnesota Twins
  22. Baltimore Orioles 
  23. Los Angeles Dodgers 
  24. Atlanta Braves 
  25. San Diego Padres 
  26. New York Yankees
  27. Philadelphia Phillies 
  28. Houston Astros 
  29. Arizona Diamondbacks 
  30. Texas Rangers
  31. Arizona Diamondbacks
  32. Baltimore Orioles 
  33. Minnesota Twins
  34. Baltimore Orioles
  35. Arizona Diamondbacks
  36. Cleveland Guardians
  37. Pittsburgh Pirates
  38. Colorado Rockies
  39. Kansas City Royals

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